### abstract ###
the tempting fate effect is that the probability of a fateful outcome is deemed higher following an action that  tempts  the outcome than in the absence of such an action
in this paper we evaluate the hypothesis that the effect is due to an illusion of control induced by a causal framing of the situation
causal frames require that the action make a difference to an outcome and that the action precedes the outcome
if an illusion of control modulates the reluctance to tempt fate  then actions that make a difference to well-being and that occur prior to the outcome should tempt fate most strongly
in experiments  NUMBER - NUMBER  we varied whether the action makes a difference and the temporal order of action and outcome
in experiment  NUMBER  we tested whether an action can tempt fate if all outcomes are negative
the results of all four experiments supported our hypothesis that the tempting fate effect depends on a causal construal that gives rise to a false sense of control
### introduction ###
risen and gilovich  CITATION  have shown that taking an action or making a decision that presupposes a certain state of the world can make the opposite state seem more likely  even when the action or decision has no real causal impact
for example  people judge that leaving one's umbrella at home increases the probability that it will rain
risen and gilovich argue that this reluctance to tempt fate occurs because an action that presupposes a good outcome leads to anticipated regret and therefore draws attention disproportionally to the negative outcome
the negative outcome then seems more likely because it is more available
in this paper we elaborate risen and gilovich's hypothesis to specify conditions that exacerbate and attenuate the feeling of tempting fate
our claim is that it is not merely the availability of the bad outcome that makes it seem more likely
rather the reluctance to tempt fate stems from an illusory causal belief that the action will influence the outcome  an illusion of control  CITATION
we further argue that this illusion of control depends on a causal construal of the role of one's action on the outcome
we understand the illusion of control to be more than a feeling that by taking an action one can bring about a desired outcome  when in fact the outcome is due to chance
we take the term  control  to be more general and to encompass any counterfactual dependency between action and outcome  including a possible action and a bad outcome
our use of the term  control  denotes a relation between variables  not states of variables
an agent will feel control over an outcome only if the agent believes at some level that his or her action has a causal relation to the outcome
causality imposes certain requirements on relations between actions and outcomes
first  for an action to cause an outcome  the action must make a difference to the outcome  CITATION
second  the action must precede the outcome  CITATION
people are highly sensitive to these requirements and therefore we propose that they experience a reluctance to tempt fate when there are cues in the environment suggesting that they should frame their actions causally  specifically that an action has the potential make a difference to the actor's well-being and that the action precedes the determination of the outcome
by definition  fate-tempting actions have no real causal impact on the outcome in question  bringing or leaving an umbrella does not influence whether it will rain
however such actions can affect well-being in a way that depends on the uncontrolled outcome
for instance  the decision to leave the umbrella at home and the weather jointly determine whether one gets wet
we argue that actions in which well-being is a joint function of the choice and the uncontrolled outcome are likely to inspire a reluctance to tempt because the casual efficacy of the action leads to a sense of control
in contrast  actions that do not directly influence well-being will not seem to tempt fate
we use the term  make-a-difference  to denote a choice that interacts with the uncontrolled outcome to determine well-being
temporal priority is another fundamental property of causal relations and one that people are highly sensitive to  CITATION
morris  sim  and girotto  CITATION  used this principle to provide evidence that an illusion of control mediated choices in a prisoner's dilemma game
they compared behavior in games where the opponent had already chosen but what they chose was unknown to cases where the opponent had not chosen yet
people were more likely to cooperate if their opponent had not chosen yet even though their own choice was unknown to the opponent
this suggests that decision-making was influenced by a belief at some level that one's choice could influence the opponent even though it was unknown to him or her  CITATION
similarly we hypothesized that the feeling of tempting fate will be attenuated if the outcome has already been determined  even if one lacks knowledge of the outcome
in sum  our hypothesis predicts that the feeling that one is tempting fate should be strengthened when the choice makes a difference to well-being and the uncontrolled outcome has not yet been determined
in the first study we manipulated both whether the choice makes a difference and the temporal order of outcome and decision to test this prediction
the second study replicated the first using different wording to rule out an alternative explanation
the third study extended the manipulation to a scenario adapted from risen and gilovich  CITATION
the fourth study examined whether the choice must make a difference that matters
