### abstract ###
a wise decider d uses the contents of his mind fully  accurately and efficiently
d's ideal decisions  i e   those that best serve his interests  would be embedded in a comprehensive set of totally coherent judgments lodged in his mind
they would conform to the norms of statistical decision theory  which extracts quantitative judgments of fact and value from d's mind contents and checks them for coherence
however  the most practical way for d to approximate his ideal may not be with models that embody those norms  i e   with applied decision theory adt
in practice  adt can represent only some of d's judgments and those imperfectly
quite different decision aid  including intuition  pattern recognition and cognitive vigilance especially combined  typically outperform feasible adt models-with some notable exceptions
however  decision theory training benefits d's informal decisions
adt  both formal and informal  should become increasingly useful and widespread  as technical  cultural and institutional impediments are overcome
### introduction ###
we would surely all agree that most people especially other people
make poor decisions and suffer the consequences
we marry abusive spouses and elect incompetent presidents  where we should have known better
we do not seem to have learned much over the ages
in the  NUMBER s  a new analytic technology  applied decision theory adt-also known as  decision analysis -promised to revolutionize decision practice  CITATION
i have spent a long career trying to realize that promise
